- The Australian Unemployment Rate is widely anticipated to remain stable at 4.1% in April.
- Employment Change is projected to show a moderate increase as the second quarter commences.
- AUD/USD is testing the upper boundary of its recent trading range, signaling a potential bullish breakout.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is scheduled to release the April employment data at 01:30 GMT on Thursday. Market consensus suggests that the Australian economy added approximately 20,000 new job positions during the month, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Prior to the release, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is trading near the 0.6500 mark against the US Dollar (USD), closely approaching the year-to-date high of 0.6514 recorded in early May. Investors are keenly watching this data as it could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) future monetary policy decisions. Any significant deviation from the expected figures could trigger substantial volatility in the AUD/USD pair.
The ABS Employment Change report provides a detailed breakdown of full-time and part-time employment figures. As defined by the ABS, full-time employment constitutes working 38 hours or more per week, typically accompanied by benefits and, more importantly, consistent income. Conversely, part-time employment generally offers higher hourly wages but lacks the stability and comprehensive benefits associated with full-time positions. Consequently, full-time job creation is generally considered a more significant indicator of economic health and exerts a greater influence on the directional movement of the AUD. Market participants closely scrutinize the composition of employment gains, as a higher proportion of full-time jobs signals stronger economic fundamentals.
In March, the Australian economy generated 32,200 new job positions, comprising 15,000 full-time positions and 17,200 part-time positions. This mixed result indicated a degree of resilience in the labor market, although the relatively even split between full-time and part-time roles suggested a need for further strengthening in the quality of employment. The RBA will likely consider this composition when assessing the overall health of the labor market and its implications for inflation and interest rate policy. Furthermore, analysts are paying close attention to participation rates and underemployment figures, which provide a more comprehensive view of the labor market’s dynamics.
