The forthcoming release of the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions and, consequently, the valuation of the US Dollar. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to publish the report on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
**Expected Inflation Figures**
Current forecasts suggest a 2.6% year-over-year increase in the overall CPI for March, a marginal decrease from the 2.8% reported in February. The core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy sectors, is projected to show a slightly lower annual increase of 3.0%, compared to 3.1% in the preceding month. On a monthly basis, projections indicate a 0.1% rise in the CPI and a 0.3% increase in the core CPI.
**Analysts’ Perspectives**
Analysts at TD Securities have offered insights into the expected composition of the report. They anticipate a sustained, albeit firm, monthly core inflation rate of 0.26% for March, following a more moderate expansion in the previous report. Their analysis suggests a potential cooling in goods inflation after two consecutive months of robust increases, while service prices are expected to exhibit some upward momentum.
Regarding the headline CPI, TD Securities projects a modest monthly increase of 0.07% for March, primarily driven by a significant contraction in the energy component. Furthermore, they anticipate a continued deceleration in food inflation, projecting a flat monthly reading. These projections highlight the potential for nuanced shifts within the broader inflation landscape.
