- Nonfarm Payrolls are anticipated to increase by 130,000 in April, a decrease from the 228,000 gain reported in March.
- The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the employment data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
- The forthcoming US jobs report holds the potential to significantly influence the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June, thereby impacting the US Dollar.
The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is set to release the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT. Market participants are keenly awaiting this release to gauge the health of the US labor market.
The April employment report will be crucial in determining the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in June, especially considering ongoing discussions regarding potential US trade agreements with key Asian trading partners and the unexpected economic contraction witnessed in the US during the first quarter of the year. This data is therefore poised to exert a considerable influence on the performance of the US Dollar (USD) in the short to medium term. Recent inflation figures have also added to the complexity of the Fed’s decision-making process, as policymakers balance the need to support economic growth with the goal of maintaining price stability.
In a NewsNation Town Hall interview conducted early Thursday, US President Donald Trump indicated that he foresees “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, further stating that there is a strong possibility of reaching an agreement with China. These developments could have implications for the broader economic outlook and, consequently, monetary policy.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Economists are forecasting that the Nonfarm Payrolls will reflect a gain of 130,000 jobs in April, a moderation from the stellar 228,000 figure recorded in March. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is projected to remain steady at 4.2% during the same period. These figures will be closely analyzed for signs of strength or weakness in the labor market.
Concurrently, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a key indicator of wage inflation, are expected to show a rise of 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, slightly higher than the 3.8% increase observed in March. This metric is particularly important as it provides insights into the potential for inflationary pressures within the economy.
In their preview of the April employment report, analysts at TD Securities commented: “Job growth is unlikely to exhibit any significant signs of deterioration in April, despite concerns about the potential impact of high tariffs on economic conditions. We anticipate that payrolls will decelerate towards a more sustainable level following the notable surge observed in March.”
“The UE rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%, while wage growth is likely to have experienced some moderation, with a projected increase of 0.2% month-over-month (MoM),” they further added. This suggests a relatively stable labor market with moderate wage growth.
How will US April Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?
The US Dollar is attempting to extend its recovery against major currency counterparts, as easing trade tensions continue to bolster risk appetite, thereby offsetting the negative impact stemming from recent US economic data releases. The currency market’s reaction will depend on whether the NFP data confirms or contradicts this trend.
The initial estimate of the US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released on Wednesday, revealed that the US economy experienced a contraction at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, primarily attributed to a surge in imports as US firms accelerated their purchases to avoid potential US levies. This unexpected contraction has raised concerns about the overall health of the US economy.
Furthermore, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% in March, a decrease from the 3% increase reported in February. Earlier on Wednesday, the ADP report indicated that US private sector payrolls increased by a mere 62,000 for the month, representing the smallest gain since July 2024, down from 147,000 in March and falling short of the consensus forecast of 108,000.
These disappointing US data points have strengthened the argument for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in June, although a decision to maintain rates at their current levels is already fully factored in for next week’s policy meeting. Market expectations continue to reflect a total of four rate cuts by the end of the year, potentially signaling that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over concerns about inflation.
In the previous month, Fed policymakers expressed ongoing concerns regarding the outlook for the US labor market. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari voiced his apprehension about potential layoffs resulting from trade-related uncertainties. In addition, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated to Bloomberg that it “wouldn’t surprise me to see more layoffs, higher unemployment,” further noting that the “easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls.”
Against this backdrop, the April jobs data will be meticulously examined for any indications regarding the condition of the US labor market and for insights into the Fed’s future interest rate policy decisions.
A reading below the 100,000 mark could reinforce expectations of Fed easing, leading to a renewed downtrend in the USD and potentially pushing Gold prices back towards record highs. Conversely, an upside surprise with a reading above 200,000 could temper expectations of a June rate cut, potentially triggering a corrective decline in Gold prices.
Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a concise technical perspective for EUR/USD:
“The main currency pair is testing the critical 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1256 in anticipation of the NFP release. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending downwards while remaining above the midline, suggesting that the pair is at a pivotal juncture.”
“Buyers must defend the 21-day SMA level to maintain the bullish outlook. Should this occur, a rebound towards the 1.1425 supply zone cannot be ruled out. Further upwards, the 1.1500 psychological level will come into focus. Conversely, EUR/USD could experience a sharp decline towards 1.1100 if the 21-day SMA is decisively breached. The subsequent support levels lie at the 1.1000 psychological barrier and the 50-day SMA at 1.0956.”
US Dollar PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.55% | 0.59% | -0.46% | -0.38% | 0.31% | -0.49% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | -0.49% | 0.65% | -0.40% | -0.34% | 0.36% | -0.44% | |
| GBP | 0.55% | 0.49% | 1.13% | 0.09% | 0.16% | 0.86% | 0.06% | |
| JPY | -0.59% | -0.65% | -1.13% | -1.06% | -0.98% | -0.34% | -1.05% | |
| CAD | 0.46% | 0.40% | -0.09% | 1.06% | 0.10% | 0.77% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | 0.38% | 0.34% | -0.16% | 0.98% | -0.10% | 0.70% | -0.10% | |
| NZD | -0.31% | -0.36% | -0.86% | 0.34% | -0.77% | -0.70% | -0.82% | |
| CHF | 0.49% | 0.44% | -0.06% | 1.05% | 0.03% | 0.10% | 0.82% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
